The Pacific Islands are home to diverse cultures, rich ecosystems, and alluring scenery. But beyond lies a darker reality, a future defined by climate change: entire nations are under the threat of drowning in sea levels rising at up to three times the average global rate. As the threat of displacement looms, 18 nations that comprise the Pacific Island Forum have declared their populations staying in place as one of their highest priorities. Island cultures in the Pacific Ocean have long histories of stewardship and sustainable relationships with their natural environment. Still, colonization and continued Western influence have disrupted these cultural and ecological dynamics, leaving communities vulnerable to a changing climate.

In Nauru, an island nation with just over 10,000 residents, the exploitation and mismanagement of natural phosphate deposits, partially at the hands of colonial powers, caused lasting consequences for the nation’s economy long after its official independence in 1968. The island houses Australia’s contentious offshore refugee detention center, which is now under temporary closure but has become a vital part of the Nauruan economy. The United States Compact of Free Association with the Marshall Islands allows a heavy US military presence that has led to forced displacement, environmental contamination, and stunted economic and political development over the past half-century. Continued military activity and a struggling economy in the Marshall Islands cause severe climate consequences and amplify disparities in access to mitigation measures. As rising US–China tensions add increasing strategic value to the geography of Pacific island countries, the small nations risk becoming pawns in the region’s larger geopolitical landscape. In January 2024, Nauru and Tuvalu faced elections and are reconsidering their diplomatic alignment based on support in fighting the climate crisis. Priceless histories and entire cultures face existential threat, and the future of US security presence in the Pacific is increasingly uncertain.

In December 2023 during the United Nations’ COP28 convention on climate change, the conference president approved the final deal in the physical absence of the entire 39-nation Alliance of Small Island States despite their attendance at the conference. The terms of the agreement were condemned by the Alliance, and do not ensure the security of many member nations into the future of the climate crisis. The Global North continues to thrive off the natural and geographical resources offered by Pacific island nations, and jeopardizes the economic, environmental, and societal security of the islands in the process. The powers responsible for these consequences owe a reparatory responsibility to these nations to address local concerns and have a duty to form a resilient security strategy of their own through mutually beneficial and sustainable relationships with the Pacific islands. Australia should permanently end its penal presence in Nauru and instead offer aid to grow a sustainable and independent economy that can better navigate the challenges of climate change. If the US intends to maintain its presence in the Marshall Islands, it should end the “climate apartheid” between Kwajalein Island, which is under US military occupation, and surrounding Marshallese localities. It should modify its Compact of Free Association and reform its bilateral relationships with other Pacific island nations to ensure their longevity throughout the climate crisis. Military and economic ties between the US and many Pacific island nations remain strong, and the consequences of losing them are grim. 

During COP28, the US agreed on a climate aid package for developing countries, and Australia has also outlined terms for climate and development aid to nations in the Pacific. However, without a structural change to the approach towards the climate crisis in Pacific island nations, they will continue to depend on foreign powers to protect their very existence and teeter their support between the West and China. By developing industries such as tourism or the even more niche automotive harness manufacturing industry, small island nations can bolster their economies and build their ability to take protective climate action. The World Health Organization has already developed an initiative to equip healthcare systems in small island nations for challenges posed by illness linked to climate impacts. Countries that bear the highest responsibility for contributions to the climate crisis should expand such efforts, building resilient industries and infrastructure in the nations they have exploited to ensure the preservation of the Pacific’s rich cultural value and the geopolitical stability of the region. The Global North should pay close attention to the issues plaguing tiny Pacific island nations; only through decisive action and genuine, mutual collaboration can they ensure security and stability together.

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