
Preserving the Human Touch to Sustain the Labor Force
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In an era where artificial intelligence (AI) is evolving and reshaping industries, how does this affect the fundamental aspects of human interaction and capability? What does the future hold for humanity in a society increasingly dominated by AI?
The strike led by the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Arts in late 2023 was not just about wages and working conditions; it was a stand to establish the rights and roles of human creativity against the encroaching threat of AI. This move illuminates a broader trend: a potential demise of occupations due to the rapid advancement of AI.
AI and its applications are astounding. Generative AI tools are now able to write movie scripts and create seemingly new solutions to complex problems based on simple textual prompts. On the other hand, this versatility is precisely what makes incorporating AI into society so daunting. No one saw the speed of AI’s integration into society coming. According to a study conducted by the Swiss bank UBS, it took TikTok nearly nine months to reach 100 million monthly users, while ChatGPT reached the same audience within just two months of its release.
A report by Goldman Sachs estimates that AI could affect around 300 million jobs over the next decade, with up to 50% of the workload in vulnerable occupations potentially being replaced by AI-powered automation. The World Economic Forum predicted that by 2025, 85 million jobs could be displaced by AI. This future is not just a distant possibility; it’s an inevitable reality.
The danger will disproportionately impact those in low-wage jobs, which are often held by minority populations. TechCast estimates that AI will replace 30% of routine knowledge work by 2025 including factory work and truck driving, positions mostly dominated by low-income workers. As AI continues to advance, these occupations are at risk of being phased out, exacerbating existing income gaps. The equity implications are clear–as the demand for STEM skills increases, those who are underrepresented in these fields, such as women and Black and Latino workers, will face the most extreme barriers to job entry. Furthermore, the rapid development of AI demands continuous upskilling, a luxury that many lower-income individuals cannot afford. This fast pace of advancement will widen the gap between the knowledgeable and the uneducated while also consolidating power in the hands of those who are able to harness the benefits of AI.
Moreover, the integration of AI-based processes in companies’ models is not a simple plug-and-play ordeal. It demands a significant investment of time, money, and experimentation. The productivity J-curve encapsulates this transition, a concept in economic progress wherein initial productivity growth is underestimated, followed by a period of overestimation. Such uncertainty in productivity, which is a crucial factor of our country’s GDP, is too big of a risk to take. There is no foolproof method to guarantee that these new systems will function flawlessly and efficiently once implemented. Additionally, integration involves much more than installing the latest software or machinery, as the adoption of AI requires a "fundamental rethinking” of the organization of production itself. Transitioning to an economy predominantly fueled by AI necessitates a reconstruction of business procedures, new forms of managerial expertise, and the training of workers.
There is no way to halt the progress of AI. However, there are ways to manage the pace of its development and integration into our economy in a way that preserves human labor:
Universal AI Governance: There should be a global framework for AI regulation that is set by federal power, not in the hands of tech companies or big corporations. Such governance should ensure that AI complements human skills rather than replacing them.
Inclusive AI Education: Knowledge about AI’s potential and ethical use should be promoted everywhere, ensuring that everyone has access to this information regardless of socio-economic background.
Social Safety Nets: As the labor market evolves, comprehensive social safety nets should be created to support those who may be displaced by the transition to an AI-driven economy. The government should have an alternative job or retraining program onto which the displaced can fall back.
In an economy already grappling with extreme wealth inequality, the unexpected advancement of generative AI presents serious risks that we cannot afford to ignore. We risk further polarization in income levels between those who reap the benefits of AI and those who cannot keep up. The implications of this technological and economic divide are profound, calling for a seriously cautious approach to integrating AI into our economy.